Money & Megatrends

December 1, 2025

By Brian Hunt

Inside today’s issue:

Our financial “early warning system” is pointing to an opportunity in the oil and gas sector
Place this one on your watchlist: A critical industry nears a key upside breakout level
The AI-fueled natural gas trade nears a major upside breakout
Google demonstrates that right now, you can make money in stocks faster than ever before

Our Financial “Early Warning System” Is Pointing to Opportunity in the Oil and Gas Sector

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) employs a system of sensor-filled buoys across the world’s oceans as part of its job to warn of tsunamis. These buoys detect and alert people to the presence of anomalous waves.

I like to think that our Global Trend Tracker serves the same purpose for financial markets. The “GTT” is our proprietary system that monitors the price movements of over 200 asset classes, key stocks, themes, and industries. It operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. It’s like the all-seeing, ever-present Eye of Sauron from The Lord of the Rings. It is our “early warning system” that alerts us to emerging trends and trades.

At any given time, many of the trends we monitor are in “consolidation” stages. They are moving sideways. Marking time.

However, the day that a trend breaks out to its highest price over the trailing 21 trading sessions (a calendar month), our system flags it. It sounds the alarm that “higher prices may lie ahead.” That’s when we examine the trend, size up its potential upside, and determine if it’s something we want to be involved with.

Right now, our financial “early warning system” is sending us strong signals that the oil and gas industry is an area of opportunity.

Oil and gas stocks don’t get much press these days, but they are quietly acting as market leaders. Over the past week, dozens of significant oil and gas stocks have registered 1-month highs.

This list of leaders includes producers such as Devon Energy (DVN), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Permian Resources (PR). It includes oil services giants Baker Hughes (BKR) and Transocean (RIG). It includes major oil and gas pipeline operators Enbridge (ENB) and Pembina Pipeline (PBA). And it includes the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES).

On September 29, we highlighted the emerging leadership of oil and gas stocks and stated it’s time to be long this sector.

The bull case for oil stocks is simple. If the global economy is growing, oil demand will remain solid. However, importantly, U.S. shale oil production growth appears to be peaking. This would remove a critical and reliable source of production growth that has been in place for over a decade. Plus, oil is very cheap relative to gold and other assets, indicating good value in oil.

That’s the bullish forecast, but regular readers know we believe financial forecasts and predictions are among the most overrated things on the planet. A relentless focus on being on the right side of price trends – regardless of what you believe about the fundamentals of those trends – is among the most underrated things on the planet.

Given the strong price action across a broad range of oil and gas names, we must say that the right side of the oil and gas complex is the long side. Trade accordingly!

Oil services are in an off-the-radar bull market

Place This One on Your Watchlist: A Critical Industry Nears a Key Upside Breakout Level

Over the past year, I’ve consistently cited the rising values of big banks, heavy equipment maker Caterpillar, U.S. manufacturing stocks, and engine maker Cummins as evidence that the U.S. economy is doing much better than apocalyptic forecasters would have you believe.

If the most important businesses operating in the most critical parts of the U.S. economy are doing well, then things can’t be all that bad in America.

With this in mind, let’s look at another critical industry that serves as a “real-world indicator” of American economic health: The transportation industry.

The iShares US Transportation ETF (IYT) is the market’s largest transportation-focused ETF. It owns a variety of companies involved in trucking, shipping, air travel, railroads, and transportation logistics. Think UPS, FedEx, Delta Air, Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, and J.B. Hunt.

It’s fair to say IYT is a “highly economically sensitive” fund. Common sense tells us that the components of IYT do well when America is making stuff, buying stuff, and transporting stuff. The components of IYT do poorly when the opposite is true.

The chart below shows the price action of IYT over the past 2.5 years. As you can see, IYT is in a long-term uptrend. Shares have recently rallied to close near their all-time high.

A clean break above that high would be a loud message that the U.S. economy is doing much better than the “prophets of the financial apocalypse” would have you believe.

IYT nears an all-time high

Google Demonstrates That Right Now, You Can Make Money in Stocks Faster Than Ever Before

If you need proof that the world is changing faster than ever, pull up a chart of Alphabet (GOOG, parent company of Google) and behold the change.

Regular readers are familiar with our take on the current rate of change in the world. Right now, you can make money in stocks faster than at any time in history. Stocks of all kinds are moving much faster than they used to.

This is thanks to the fusion of three modern-day phenomena:

Blazing exponential progress in technology;
Light-speed dissemination of business and stock market information; and
Rapid action thanks to high-frequency trading and smartphone-enabled trading.

Add those up, and you get a market that moves much, much faster than it did 20 years ago. Put another way, “This is not your father’s stock market.”

This dynamic is certainly working its magic at Google in 2025. Early this year, many people believed OpenAI’s ChatGPT represented a considerable threat to Google’s wonderfully profitable search engine business. These concerns made it so Google’s stock traded for a much lower valuation than many high-growth tech firms.

Over the past few months, however, the Google story has changed drastically.

Google’s brand-new AI models are considered bleeding-edge leaders in the field. Coupled with Google’s enormous reach and distribution, they could make Google the winner in dozens of key AI applications.

This development has attached AI-rocket boosters to the stock. Shares are up 48% in the past three months. Google added an incredible $1 trillion to its market value in less than two months. It’s one of the most extraordinary moves in stock market history.

One week, you’re in the technology doghouse. The next week, you’re the world’s greatest AI company and worth an extra trillion dollars.

Yes, things are changing quickly these days.

AI-rocket boosters power Google to new highs

Market Notes

Tech giant Apple (AAPL) reached a new 1-year high today. It’s now a $4.2 trillion company.
High-speed connectivity giant Credo Technology (CRDO) hit a 1-year high today after crushing earnings.
Semiconductor maker Intel (INTC) reached a 1-year high today.
Semiconductor manufacturing equipment leader ASML (ASML) reached a new all-time high today.
High-horsepower engine maker Cummins (CMI) reached a new all-time high today.
Brazilian iron ore miner Vale (VALE) reached a new 1-year high today. It’s more confirmation that critical resources are in an uptrend.