Money & Megatrends
October 1, 2025
By Brian Hunt
Inside today’s issue:
- The bearish forecasters get steamrolled by yet another powerful uptrend
- A new Trump Trade: The U.S. government wants more missiles!
- Solar and biotech power to new highs
The Bearish Forecasters Get Steamrolled by Yet Another Powerful Uptrend
Over the past month, I’ve pointed new all-time highs in banking stocks, consumer spending stocks, and construction equipment stocks as evidence things “can’t be all that bad” in the U.S. economy.
I’ve said that sure, the economy has its share of problems, but if lots of the country’s most important businesses are growing earnings and soaring to new highs, can things be all that bad? I don’t think so.
This week, we can add the powerful uptrend and new all-time highs in manufacturing stocks to our list of bullish signals.
As you can see in the chart below, the manufacturing stock fund we follow (XLI) just hit a new all-time high. This fund is loaded with large U.S. manufacturers like GE Aerospace, Caterpillar, Boeing, Honeywell, John Deere, 3M, and Lockheed Martin. These are heavy industry firms that make generators, tractors, airplanes, air conditioners, appliances, and bulldozers.
Together, these companies and their smaller brethren are the manufacturing backbone of America… and the market says they are doing great. Maybe someday the bearish economic forecasters will be right, but they are getting steamrolled right now.
Manufacturing stocks rise to all-time highs
Gold: A Wonderful Demonstration That Trends Tend to Persist and Winners Tend to Keep on Winning
Gold and gold stocks hit another new high today. Gold is up an incredible 47% this year. The gold miner fund we follow (GDX) is up 125% this year.
In 2022 and 2023, I wrote many pieces that urged readers and colleagues to own gold and gold stocks as hedges against U.S. dollar debasement.
I believe there’s a huge idea out there that most Americans don’t know. That counter to what the government claims, the U.S. dollar has lost a tremendous amount of its value over the past six years. I estimate the dollar has lost at least 33% of its value. This is why prices seem so high… because the value of our money is so low.
Over the past 50 years, our government has promised too many things to too many people. It is struggling under a giant burden of debt and unfunded liabilities. These debts and liabilities cannot possibly be paid with sound, honest money. They can only be paid for with ever increasing amounts of debased, diluted money. This is producing major currency debasement and financial market chaos.
As a result, individuals and whole countries are buying huge amounts of gold to protect their savings.
Gold’s extraordinary 2025 run is a great demonstration of one of my core “operating principles” … one that has made me a lot of money.
In a nutshell, this principle says, Trends tend to persist, winners tend to keep on winning, and Isaac Newton was right. An object in motion tends to stay in motion.
The giant technological, business, and macroeconomic trends I’m trading and encouraging you to benefit from are for the most part not short-term happenings. They are gigantic, glacier-like multi-year megatrends that change the world. The underlying conditions from which these trends spring forth take years – sometimes decades – to form.
When these trends get moving, they move over multi-year time spans. They compound on themselves. They become giant wealth-creating snowballs. Strength begets strength.
This is why buying into a megatrend after it has reached a six month high or a 12 month high might feel like you’re getting in late… but is often one of the smartest financial moves you can make.
For example, the gold miner fund (GDX) reached a new 52-week high in March of this year (see chart below). Buying it at that point would make many people uncomfortable because they felt like they “missed the move.”
But shortly after that, GDX ran 20% higher to reach another new 52-week high. And again, we see that buying it at that point would make many people uncomfortable because they felt like they “missed the move.”
But shortly after that, GDX ran another 40% higher to reach another 52-week high. Buying into the trend after it had already moved higher was a big moneymaker.
Gold is not an isolated case in recent market history. We saw this same behavior from megatrends in crypto-related assets… growth leaders RobinHood and Palantir… AI leader Nvidia… uranium… and the Mag 7.
With all these winning trades and trends, the people that saw new highs and said to themselves “I missed it” and didn’t buy ended up missing some of the greatest opportunities of the past decade.
Gold reaching yet another new high today is a good time for all of us to go find a quiet spot and say the following five times to ourselves: Trends tend to persist, winners tend to keep on winning, and Isaac Newton was right. An object in motion tend to stay in motion.
It’s meditation that can make you money.
I’m still long gold.
The U.S. Government Wants a Lot More Missiles… the Uptrend in Defense Powers to New Highs
Like this new administration or not, you’ve got to admit these guys make stocks move.
In our September 29 issue, I highlighted the potential opportunity in psychedelic stocks. RFK Jr. is rumored to be a supporter of the sector… which could lead to regulatory support and much higher stock prices.
But my outlook here is broader than just psychedelics. As a trader looking for big themes and trends to trade, I’m continually impressed with how Trump and Team tell the world what industries and companies they intend to support… and then go and actually support them.
Put differently, these guys tell you want stocks they want to go up and then they make them go up. And they give you time to get in!
Trump & Team took over in January. Since then, their moves have sent rare earth mining stocks soaring. They’ve sent shares of Intel up 48% in two months. Trump’s support for crypto has helped generate a lot of gains in that sector.
If you want to truly capitalize on these kinds of opportunities, don’t think in terms of red or blue. Just think in terms of green. Leave politics at the door and focus on the trends. Forget about Epstein, Comey, vaccines, and woke vs. not woke for a while. Just focus on trends and opportunity.
With this in mind, let’s talk about how Trump & Team want the defense industry to start producing a lot more drones and missiles. From a recent WSJ article:
The Pentagon, alarmed at the low weapons stockpiles the U.S. would have on hand for a potential future conflict with China, is urging its missile suppliers to double or even quadruple production rates on a breakneck schedule.
The push to speed production of the critical weapons in the highest demand has played out through a series of high-level meetings between Pentagon leaders and senior representatives from several U.S. missile makers, according to people familiar with the matter.
In other words, we have yet another Trump trade to make. Trump wants missile makers to make more missiles. Trump is happy to pay them big bucks to do it. This is bullish for missile makers RTX, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. I’d say it’s bullish for the whole defense industry.
But don’t take my word for it. Listen to the market. It just sent the Defense Contractor fund (ITA) we follow to a new all-time high. We bet this trend runs higher.
Defense stocks run to new all-time highs
Market Notes
- Back in December, we urged readers and colleagues to get long the autonomous military and surveillance drone megatrend. Since then, this theme has generated incredible gains. Leading drone maker AeroVironment (AVAV) just hit a new all-time high.
- The broad based global bull market we’ve covered many times is alive and well. Today, we see new highs for Spain (EWS), Mexico (EWW), Malaysia (EWM), Britain (EWU), and Europe (FEZ).
- Our call on solar is doing well right out of the gate. Today, the solar group (TAN) advanced 2.6% to reach a new six month high.
- Our biotechnology trade is also doing well right out of the gate. The small cap biotech fund (XBI) advanced to another new six month high today.
The Trend Leaderboard
Top performing themes and trends over the past 3 months
